(Reuters) - On
one of the most exclusive streets in Nigeria's capital sits a crumbling
mansion with an unwelcoming message painted at its entrance: "BEWARE!
THIS HOUSE IS NOT FOR SALE".
The warning refers to a popular
property scam. In the most elaborate version, robbers break into your
house while you are away, change the locks, and then produce multiple
copies of fake title deeds. Posing as estate agents, they show buyers
around your house and sell as many copies of the deeds as possible. When
you get back, your house belongs to six people.
This
sort of deception epitomises the tricky nature of Nigeria's real estate
business, but despite the risks, there are huge returns to be had in a
market where around 16 million homes are needed just to meet current
demand.
Navigating through opaque
land laws, corruption, a lack of development expertise and financing, a
dearth of mortgages and high building costs will take courage and
influential local partners.
"There
are sizeable challenges to overcome but in many ways Nigeria represents
the perfect storm for real estate investment; huge population, rapid
urbanisation and a growing middle-class," said Michael Chu'di Ejekam,
Director of Nigerian Real Estate at Actis, a London-based private equity
firm.
Actis has $5.2 billion under
management, including two sub-Saharan Africa real estate equity funds
totalling $434 million, which it says are attracting U.S. and European
investors.
Nigeria's population of
nearly 170 million is bigger than Russia's and its economy is growing at
6 percent, a combination which is producing a new wave of property
buyers from bankers and airline staff to mobile phone and fast food shop
owners.
"I see demand from the
middle-class higher than ever before," said Deolu Dara, Associate Vice
President at Nigeria-based Avante Property Asset Management, which
manages several multi-million dollar residential projects in Lagos.
A
successful real estate investment in Nigeria can earn an returns as
high as 30-35 percent, while rental income yields in cities such as
Lagos and Abuja can easily reach 10 percent, developers and estate
agents say.
MIDDLE CLASS
Property
in Lagos, a heaving metropolis of around 20 million people, can be
among the most expensive in the world with two-bedroom flats costing
more than $1 million in upmarket areas.
However,
the top-end range is dominated by well established players and
developers should target middle-income workers in major cities, such
Lagos, Abuja and the oil-hub Port Harcourt. The most popular units fall
in a price bracket of 20-35 million naira, developers and estate agents
say.
Nigeria's middle class make
up around 23 percent of the population and earn around 80,000-100,000
naira per month, according to report by investment bank Renaissance
Capital.
In smaller cities and
rural areas, a lack of information about land and regulation is
off-putting, while a violent Islamist insurgency has made the north of
Nigeria unattractive, despite huge unmet demand in cities such as Kano
and Kaduna.
The majority of
Nigerians live in poverty in shanty towns or in basic concrete block and
iron-roofed houses they have built themselves, but building mass
housing for the poor is not a popular investment.
"If
you know the market, the people, focus on middle class and cherry pick
your deals, you can clean out," added Dara, who said Africa's biggest
oil and gas industry is also driving demand. One foreign oil major
bought 300 flats recently.
Nigeria's
construction and real estate sectors are growing at more than 10 and 12
percent respectively, a boon for foreign and Nigerian construction
firms, including UPDC (
UACN.LG), Cappa D'Alberto (
CAPALBE.LG) and Julius Berger (
JBERGER.LG).
Yet,
there is still not enough quality affordable housing because business
is frustrated by widespread corruption, poor state infrastructure and a
lack of expertise and financing.
Constructing
a block of flats costs three times as much in Nigeria than in South
Africa, builders say, and many developments are abandoned when projects
run out of money or become slums because they are poorly built.
London-based estate agent Jones Lang LaSalle (
JLL.N) ranks Nigeria 96th out of 97 on its transparency index, just in front of Sudan but behind six other African countries.
Having support from powerful politicians or business magnates will help to avoid terminal financial pitfalls.
LOCAL PARTNERS
"It's a business that requires local partners and local knowledge or you'll run into problems," Dara at Avante says.
Avante's chairman is Wale Tinubu, the head of oil and gas firm Oando (
OANDO.LG) and a close relative of former Lagos state governor Bola Tinubu, who still wields influence there.
London-based Actis has given directorships to Nigerian energy firm Seven Energy and local conglomerate UAC (
UACN.LG).
Once
the supply challenges have been overcome, there remains a problem with
that huge latent demand. No mortgages. Unless you are willing to pay a
25 percent interest rate.
The
mortgage debt-to-GDP ratio in Nigeria is under 0.5 percent, compared
with 72 percent in the U.S. and over 30 percent in Malaysia and South
Africa, government figures show.
"In
places like America you seem to be able to buy property without a
stress but it just isn't like that here," said Ike Ejekam, 31, who is
about to buy a newly-built two-bedroom apartment for 20 million naira in
a gated community in the popular Lekki district on the Lagos peninsula.
Ejekam
represents the new breed of buyers who expect well-built housing with
all the modern conveniences. He works at a branch of a local bank and is
using his life savings and funds borrowed from family members to buy
his property outright.
"I don't like to think about mortgages because it scares me when I see how difficult it is for my friends to get a loan."
Nigerian
banks don't like giving out mortgages because reliable information
about buyers and land is scarce, while there is no secondary market to
offset the risks.
MORTGAGE DENIED
The
government says it is trying to fix this by securing a $300 million
loan from the World Bank to establish a mortgage refinancing company,
which should free up some bank lending.
A
Federal Mortgage Bank was also launched this year, which government
hopes will help build 500,000 new homes. The bank plans to float a 200
billion naira mortgage bond, the proceeds from which can be handed over
to home buyers with the state guaranteeing against default for five
years.
The government is also discussing passing legislation to create a secondary mortgage market and to improve land laws.
"With this sense of urgency we could have a significant improvement in the mortgage market by 2015," United Bank for Africa (
UBA.LG) CEO Phillips Oduoza told Reuters.
This
optimism is also being felt by developers as dozens of well-financed
projects are underway, including the Eko Atlantic City - a multi-billion
dollar project built from 9 square kilometres of land being reclaimed
from the sea in Lagos.
The
billionaire Chagoury brothers, who are of Lebanese descent, are leading
the mega-project, which will feature parks, swimming pools and
skyscrapers with floor-to-ceiling glass. Banks, including France's BNP
Paribas (
BNPP.PA), Belgium's KBC (
KBC.BR) and several Nigerian lenders are on board.
In
Abuja, UPDC has started its 228-unit 'Metro City', which consists of
well-designed blocks with balconies built in palm-fringed private
compounds. Privately owned Churchgate Group is building its ambitious $1
billion World Trade Centre, a series of skyscrapers housing offices,
flats and upscale shops.
"Nigeria is a huge real estate opportunity," said Ejekam at Actis. "The story is getting out, slowly."
(Writing by Joe Brock; Editing by Giles Elgood)