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A long stretch of traffic has built up from the Mile 12 bridge all the way to Ikorodu Bus stop as soldiers have barricaded the ever-busy road based on what they called an “orders from above.”
The Inspector General of Police, Suleiman Abba, had announced that there would be no restriction of movement today(Sunday) over the rescheduled elections.
Our correspondent learnt that most of those caught in the traffic are Christians, attempting to go to church to observe the Palm Sunday.
It was learnt that following the hiccups experienced in the voting on Saturday, the Independent National Electoral Commission postponed elections in five local government areas in Lagos till today.
These are Alimosho, Oshodi/Isolo, Eti Osa, Kosofe and Somolu LGAs.
However, a resident of Ikorodu, Abiodun Samuel, wondered why the residents of Ikorodu would be barred from moving when IKorodu local government was not among the areas that INEC had listed.
He said, “Ikorodu’s election yesterday was conclusive and every polling unit has been counted so I don’t know why soldiers are preventing us from moving. I have been in the traffic all day and the sad part is that this road (Mile 12-Ikorodu Road) is the only road connecting Ikorodu to the major parts of Lagos.
“The unfortunate thing is that most of us cannot turn back because we have been blocked by vehicles on all sides of the road.”
Meanwhile, investigations by our correspondent showed that the voter turnout today may be less than yesterday due to the Palm Sunday, which will witness long hours of service and street processions.
Our correspondent, who visited various areas in Kosofe LGA, observed that there was no presence of INEC as of 9.34am.
The police have, however, warned people, who have no business at polling units, to stay away.
There was panic in Ikirun, Osun State, on Saturday as the presidential election was ongoing when supporters of the Peoples Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress clashed.
According to an eyewitness, who is simply identified as Ismaila, he said the victim was a graduate of The Polytechnic, Ire, Osun State.
He said the victim, popularly known as ‘Hunger’, allegedly belonged to a cult group and a supporter of the PDP.
The state Police Public Relations Officer, Sade Odoro, could not be reached as her telephone number was not reachable when our correspondent called her to confirm the incident.
There was commotion at Ward 5, Ona Ara Local Government Area of Oyo State, on Saturday when the Peoples Democratic Party governorship candidate in the state, Teslim Folarin, publicly doled out money to his party supporters at his polling unit.
The PDP governorship candidate defied the rules when he openly shouted ‘Te sibe'(print it there), a popular campaign slogan, urging people to vote for him.
One of the youths, who grabbed the money from Folarin, tried to run away, but was soon held by the angry crowd.
Those on the queue waiting to vote began to scramble for their share of the money.
The commotion, which lasted for over 20 minutes, saw the youths squeezing one another’s clothes while those, who managed to grab a few notes, received blows from others.
Police deployed in the unit watched as the youths tackled themselves in the brawl.
Folarin, who cast his votes at St. John’s Primary School, hosting two polling units at about 3pm, had addressed journalists before voting.
He came in company with his wife, Angela.
He told journalists that he was not satisfied with the performance of the card reader.
He said,”The card reader is very slow in accrediting and verifying voters’ identity.This was why we kicked against it earlier. Although, I was not delayed,reports from other parts of th
state are not commendable.”
He said the All Progressives Congress had failed to deliver good governance to the masses.
Folarin predicted a landslide victory for President Goodluck Jonathan,saying he was impressed with the large turn out.
INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega says the rehashed disappointment of the card reader to read President Jonathan’s PVC at his surveying unit in Otuoke, Bayelsa yesterday was a national humiliation. He said this in a meeting on NTA last night. See more of what he said amid the meeting bellow.
The INEC has given approval for its officers to accredit voters manually after being sufficiently satisfied that the Permanent Voter Card belongs to a prospective voter presenting it.
In a statement by INEC’s Chairman, Information, Voter Education and Publicity Committee, Dr. Chris Eyimoga, on Saturday, the commission said this step was informed by the level of challenges encountered in the Saturday elections to accredit prospective voters.
Iyimoga said, “The Commission has, therefore, decided as part of the Guidelines for the Conduct of the 2015 general elections that in Polling Units where card readers have so failed to work, the Presiding Officer shall manually accredit voters by marking the register of voters, upon being satisfied that the person presenting a Permanent Voter’s Card is the legitimate holder of the card.”
Some armed thugs have reportedly hijacked ballot boxes on Ayilara Street in the Mushin area of Lagos. INEC officials told presmen that the thugs, after snatching the ballot box, emptied them in the gutter.
We learnt that the House of Reps and Senatorial ballot materials were affected, hence residents could not vote.
An official said, ,”They came in a car. They also carried bottles and cutlasses. As soon as they hijacked the boxes, they poured them(papers) into the gutters and ran away in their car.
“We tried to salvage those papers, but we could not conduct the elections. because we did not know if they took some of the papers away.
“But we were able to conduct the presidential election since it was only the house of reps and senatorial ballot boxes that were hijacked.”
The Commissioner of Police, Lagos State, Kayode Aderanti while commending the officials for their courage, promised to beef up security in the area.
There was palpable tension in parts of Oshodi on Saturday as military men occupied some strategic roads in the area following an attempt by a mob to attack policemen and INEC officials on election duty.
The soldiers and members of other security agencies in about three Hilux vans condoned off major roads around Church Street, Oyetayo and Oshodi Road in order to repel the agitated mob.
The soldiers, it was learnt, were drafted to the area following gunshots allegedly heard in the area by some electoral officials.
However, some residents, interviewed by our correspondents, expressed worry at the sight of the stern-looking soldiers near their voting units.
In a related development, at the PU 017, Ward D3, Oludegun Avenue, Mafoluku, Oshodi, there was a low turnout of voters as only 150 of the over 700 voters registered turned up for accreditation as of 12.30pm.
The Presiding Officer for the ward, Miss Adeyinka Abikoye, confirmed this to one of our correspondents.
But at St Paul’s Primary School, Makinde Oshodi, polling unit, the turnout of voters was impressive.
The Presiding officer, Ndubisi Odukwe, said the accreditation started at 8am without any report of malfunctioning of the card reader.
He explained that due to the large turnout of the voters, accreditation would be extended to 2.45pm.
Also, at Ward 04 PU 17, Seriki Abbas, Ajao Estate, the conduct was peaceful with a large turnout of voters. Its Presiding Officer, Tijana Moses, noted that of the 1,211 registered voters, only 200 persons had reported for accreditation as of 1pm.
Vice President , after several defeats at his polling unit by opposition party, trounced the All Progressives Congress at his new polling unit in the Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections.
In the 2011 general elections, Sambo was roundly defeated in his polling unit, ward and local government.
However, in the Saturday’s polls, the Returning Officer, Olorufemi Raphael, while announcing the result at the Kabala Doki Ward 5, Police College polling unit 11, said PDP polled 105 votes, APC 20 votes, NCP 01, and while APA 01.
The Vice President had earlier, on the eve of the Saturday’s election, relocated his polling unit from Link/Camp Road to swimming pool road by the Kaduna Police College fence.
The result of the wards and the Kaduna North LGA were still being awaiting as of the time of filing this result.
This will determine the overall victory of the PDP in the area.
Today’s presidential and national assembly election in Nigeria will most likely not be business as usual for Nigeria’s political elite and the electorate.
Although there are 14 presidential candidates in Saturday’s race, two of them namely, Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party and Muhammadu Buhari, of the All Progressives Congress are the front runners. Both were also candidates in the 2011 poll.
Already, the passion exhibited by politicians and the robust campaigns of the two parties showed that Nigeria has moved towards democratic sustainability.
While the two major political parties went about the country selling their candidates to the electorate, one thing stood out in the campaigns – the political class is greatly averse to military intervention. They all believe in democracy and they want to nurture it.
But some of their actions betray the very essence of democracy. For instance, the campaigns by the PDP and the APC have been everything but civil. Political actors from the two camps were guilty of many things including amplification of hate speech, undue manipulation of religious sentiments and crude propaganda.
But who wins Saturday’s contest, the fifth since the restoration of democracy in Nigeria in 1999? Ibanga Isine and Festus Owete assess the chances of the PDP and APC candidates in the 36 states and Abuja, the nation’s capital.
President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari shaking hands at the 2015 Elections Sensitization Workshop on Non-Violence in Abuja today, organized by the Office of the National Security Adviser and SA to Mr. President on inter-party affairs.
SOUTH-SOUTH
Akwa Ibom: In this state, which has a total of 1,587,566 eligible voters with PVCs, the PDP will most likely sweep the presidential poll but in the National Assembly elections, the APC may snatch some federal constituencies and a Senate seat. It would not be a smooth sail for Mr. Jonathan here even though the Governor, Godswill Akpabio, is one of PDP’s strongest and most influential vote canvassers. In 2011, the president trounced Mr. Buhari by 1.65 million votes to 5,348. However in recent times, the APC has made serious inroad into the oil-rich state to pose a formidable challenge to the PDP.
Rivers: This will be one of the major battlegrounds in the zone and Nigerians are praying that it does not explode in a bloody violence among the opposing political forces. The APC cannot clinch the presidential election and majority of seats in the two chambers of the National Assembly because of the overwhelming influence of top PDP chieftains in the state. Currently, the most important and most influential political figure in the APC in the state is Governor Rotimi Amaechi. Just last Sunday, his Deputy, Tele Ikuru, defected back to the PDP and joined the swelling ranks of rich, influential and crowd-pulling members of the party including former Governor, Peter Odili; former governor, Celestine Omehia; two former deputy speakers of the House of Representatives, Chibudum Nwuche and Austin Okpara; former Minister of Transport, Abiye Sekibo; and former Minister of State for Education, Nyeso Nwike; who is the party’s gubernatorial flag bearer, among others.
With the political bigwigs in the PDP and their strong supporters, it might be difficult for the APC to take the state but Mr. Amaechi, a dogged politician, seems set to overwhelm all forces arraigned against his party to emerge victorious. In the presidential election, Mr. Jonathan might get the most votes not only because he is an Ijaw man with strong links in the state but also because his wife, Patience, is an indigene of the state. There is also a possibility of violence in some parts of the state including Okrika, Port Harcourt, Obio/Akpor, Ikwerre and in many of the riverine communities. It is difficult to predict who emerges the governor of the state but Mr. Jonathan is most likely going to do well here.
Bayesla: This is Mr. Jonathan’s home state. It has always voted PDP and with 548, 585 PVC holders, the state will likely deliver the most votes to Mr. Jonathan while the National Assembly election will also favour the PDP. A former governor of the state, Timipre Sylva, who is also a senatorial candidate on APC platform, may help to swing some votes to the opposition.
Edo: The 1,230,566 PVC holders in the APC-controlled Edo State will be torn between regional loyalty and the sway of the comrade Governor, Adams Oshiomhole, who is one of the pillars of the APC. Since the gubernatorial election will not be conducted in the state, Mr. Oshiomhole, who had fraternized with Mr. Jonathan especially during his first term in office, will find it difficult to stop the flow of votes to the PDP presidential candidate. At the end of the poll, the APC presidential candidate will most likely share the spoils with the President. Mr. Jonathan’s national campaign adviser, Tony Anenih, also known as “Mr. Fix It”, who though has been demystified by the “bulldozing” Mr. Oshimohole will definitely influence some votes to the president, especially in his Esan land. But so also will Mr. Oshiomhole and the APC National Chairman, John Oyegun, do so for Mr. Buhari.
Delta: This is another fertile area for the PDP. Since 1999, the state has largely been controlled by the PDP and with the influence of some very rich ex-militants; there is a possibility that the APC may not get up to 40 per cent of the 1,939,952 of the electorate with PVC. The National Assembly elections may also favour the ruling party.
Cross River: It has never really gone the way of the opposition and still might not this time around. Although some of the PDP big shots were angry over the emergence of some of the candidates in the state, there is no way the few strong element outside the ruling party can change the voting pattern which has always favoured the party in power. So, with the 983,968 PVC holders, there is a possibility that 70 per cent of the presidential election votes will go to Mr. Jonathan while the PDP will clinch majority of seats in the National Assembly poll. The opposition parties in the state may take one or two seats in the House of Representatives but this is just a probability.
SOUTH EAST
Imo: The state with the highest number of PVC holders in the zone is Imo which is controlled by Governor Rochas Okorocha of the APC. Although Mr. Okorocha is governor, the election may be a bit difficult for his party because many of those who supported and brought him to power in 2011 have returned to the PDP. Besides, the All Progressives Grand Alliance under which Mr. Okorocha won the election would not have taken the state if not for the influence of the aggrieved PDP members who at that time defected to the party. Another factor that played against the then incumbent and PDP flag bearer, Ikedi Ohakim, was the animosity he attracted when his aides were reported to have beaten up a Catholic priest. In the South East, the Catholic and Anglican churches play major roles in who becomes anything. Therefore, when Mr. Ohakim attracted the wrath of the church, he never recovered from it. Mr. Okorocha’s aides have recently been accused of invading the Maria Assumpta Catholic Cathedral and disrupting a debate which was organised for candidates of political parties in the state. For doing that, the churches in Imo State may turn their backs against the governor and his party. This state is difficult to predict electorally, but it will sure be a tough contest between Mr. Jonathan and Mr. Buhari. Pundits believe Mr. Jonathan may prevail here, but this is currently an APC state, and there is no way the opposition party will not give the PDP a run for its money here, although the zone is dominated by the PDP.
Abia: This state, with a total of 1,183,127 PVC holders will deliver more votes to the PDP in both the presidential and National Assembly elections. Mr. Jonathan will win here not only because it is a PDP stronghold, but also because his wife’s is maternally from Abia. However, the influence of a former governor of the state, Orji Uzor Kalu, cannot be underestimated. Yet, Abians may want to vote their son, Chekwas Okorie, who is the candidate of the United Progressives Party.
Anambra: Although, Anambra is controlled by the All Progressives Grand Alliance, it will vote PDP in the presidential election. The ruling party has since adopted Mr. Jonathan as its presidential candidate. Former Governor and Senator, Chris Ngige of the APC is facing a huge obstacle returning to the National Assembly because his popularity appears to have waned. Mr. Ngige is not known for sharing the “dividends” of democracy and his people may not give him the type of support he got when he contested against former Minister of Information, late Dora Akinyuli. APGA may take a few seats in the House of Representatives but it will be difficult for its national leader, Victor Umeh, to win a seat in the Senate.
Enugu: Enugu State is another stronghold of the PDP and the scenario this time around will not be anything different. Majority of the 1,223,606 PVC holders in the state will vote for President Jonathan with Mr. Buhari trailing behind. The same thing will play out in the National Assembly and the governorship election. But there is possibility of the opposition parties taking one or two seats in the National Assembly.
Ebonyi: This the smallest state in the South East and has a total of 848,392 PVC holders. Based on the outcome of past elections, the people of the state have always voted for the party at the centre and that will not change this time around. Although, the state governor, Martin Elechi, is reportedly romancing with the Labour Party, the state may vote Mr. Jonathan, especially given the influence and structure of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim and former Governor Sam Egwu.
SOUTH WEST
Lagos: The nation’s commercial nerve centre has always been in the kitty of the opposition. However, the ruling PDP is battling to dislodge the APC here this time. Though an opposition state, Mr. Jonathan emerged tops in Lagos in 2011 with over 1.2 million votes to Mr. Buhari’s paltry 189,983 and Ribadu’s 427,203 votes. There are 3,799,274 PVCs carriers out of 5.022,297 registered voters. The former military strongman, this time, may emerge tops. The APC leader and former governor, Bola Tinubu, joined by other political gladiators in Eko will deliver the state to Mr. Buhari. The APC is also certain to win over 90 per cent of the National Assembly seats.
Osun: This is APC stronghold and will go the way of the APC candidate despite the “rampaging” PDP. The APC will also take most of the legislative seats. A total of 1,125,657 people have their PVCs here.
Oyo: Until 2011, Oyo State was a PDP state. It fell into the hands of the PDP in 2003 when the party dislodged the AD but returned to the opposition in 2011. In that year’s presidential poll, Mr. Jonathan defeated Mr. Buhari and others. That may not be the case again. The Accord Party will certainly give the APC and PDP a hot chase in the National Assembly election.
Ekiti: Here, Governor Ayo Fayose badly wants to swing victory for Mr. Jonathan. However, the APC structure is still alive even though it lost power to Mr. Fayose’s PDP just a few months ago. It has been selling its presidential flag-bearer as a South-West consensus candidate. With three former governors and other top politicians in the APC, Mr. Buhari may make an appreciable impact here. The National Assembly election will also be a tough contest between the two parties. There are 522,107 PVC holders here.
Ondo: Governor Olusegun Mimiko is battling to take the entire state to the PDP in this election. However, the defection of his deputy to the APC a few days ago is a major setback for the governor, who himself dumped LP some months earlier. The two main parties may run neck to neck here both in the presidential and the National Assembly elections. There are 1.1 million PVC holders here.
Ogun: This state, with 1,125,657 holders of PVCs is also a battle ground for APC and PDP, but Mr. Buhari will carry the day. This is the home state of former President Olusegun Obasanjo who has ceaselessly criticised Mr. Jonathan for non-performance. The APC is sure to pick more of the legislative seats today.
NORTH CENTRAL
Benue: Elections in Benue State have always gone the way of the ruling PDP but with the defection of many top PDP chieftains to the APC, the tide may turn. With a total of 1, 607, 800 PVC holders in the state, over 60 per cent of the presidential election votes will likely go to Mr. Jonathan. The National Assembly election will be hotly contested with the incumbent governor, Gabriel Suswam trying to wrest the Senate seat from the former PDP National Chairman, Barnabas Germade, now with the APC. Equally, former Governor and Senate Minority Leader, George Akume of the APC will retain his seat while David Mark will most likely retain his seat. Majority of seats in the House of Representatives election might go the way of the PDP. Places like Gboko, Kwande, Katsina Ala and other crisis prone areas of the state have been identified as potential flash points.
Kogi: This has been a PDP state since 2003. In Kogi State where a total of 926,013 prospective voters got their PVC, the presidential election will likely go to Mr. Jonathan but with a slight margin while the APC is certain to snatch a few seats from the PDP in the National Assembly poll.
Kwara: While the APC is in control of Kwara State which has a total of 889,067 PVC holders, the PDP will give the party a tough chase to get some of the National Assembly’s seat. But the presidential election will most likely the way of the APC. A former governor and now a senator, Bukola Saraki, of the APC is believed to be in full control of the political machinery here and he will use his influence to deliver the state to Mr. Buhari.
Nasarawa: This state is an APC stronghold and will likely remain so during this election. Mr. Buhari will likely take the presidential poll in the state with a slight margin against Mr. Jonathan of the PDP. But the National Assembly election will be shared almost 50/50 by the two major political parties.
Niger: The election in Niger State will likely favour Mr. Buhari partly because of the influence of two former Heads of State that are said to favour the opposition party. But Mr. Jonathan will still win over 30 per cent of the votes in the state. However, the governorship and the National Assembly election may be taken largely by the PDP.
Plateau: Plateau State has remained with the PDP since 1999 and may not go the way of the APC in this election. Mr. Jonathan will likely get over 60 per cent of the votes from the state while the National Assembly election will be largely taken by the ruling party. The APC will, however, take a few seats in areas dominated by Hausa/Fulani.
FCT Abuja: In spite of its large population, the Federal Capital Territory has only 569, 109 PVC holders and the votes will be split almost 50/50 between Mr. Jonathan and Mr. Buhari. The lone Senate seat for the territory will likely be retained by the PDP while most of the House of Representatives seats will also go the ruling party. The APC may spring a surprise to clinch one or two seats currently held by the PDP.
NORTH EAST
Bauchi: The state has the largest number of voters in the zone with a total of 1,967, 081 PVC holders. During the 2011 polls which later erupted in an orgy of violence, Mr. Buhari of the then Congress for Progressive Change was voted as the presidential election while Isa Yuguda of the PDP won at the gubernatorial poll. In this election, Mr. Buhari will most likely defeat his PDP counterpart, Mr. Jonathan, with a wide margin while the National Assembly election will be shared between the PDP and APC with the later having more. Another factor that will influence the voting pattern here is that the National Chairman of the PDP, Adamu Mu’azu hails from the state. The gubernatorial election in the state may likely go the PDP way because of the influence of the incumbent governor but the APC will give Mr. Yuguda a fight for the Government House.
Borno: Election in Borno State is a bit difficult to predict because of the pervasive humanitarian crisis in the area. It is also very difficult to understand how INEC distributed PVCs to almost the number of people it registered in the state even when hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced. Based on the commission’s data, a total of 1, 407,777 PVCs have been distributed in the war-weary state. Majority of the traumatized residents may vote for Mr. Buhari, whom they believe could help rid their area of Boko Haram insurgents. But some votes will go for Mr. Jonathan who has just recently pushed out the bloody militants except in Gwoza. The National Assembly election will largely go to the APC but PDP will take a reasonable number of seats.
Yobe: This north eastern state has always been a stronghold of the opposition. In the last four previous elections, the ANPP won the state in presidential, legislative and governorship elections. The pattern of voting by the people may not change. Ravaged by insurgency activities though recently liberated by the Nigeria military, Yobe has 1,099,970 registered voters though only 824,401 collected their PVCs. Going by the previous voting pattern, Mr. Buhari is expected to win in the state with a wide margin. It is believed that the protest votes against Mr. Jonathan may be borne out of the dissatisfaction with how the insurgency was initially handled in the states, where several people lost loved ones. In today’s election, more than 90 per cent of the National Assembly seat will go to the APC. Gladiators who are likely to influence votes include a three-time governor of the state and now a senator, Bukar Abba Ibrahim of the APC and a former Police Affairs Minister, Waziri Maina.
Gombe: Quite early in the current political dispensation, Gombe was in the hands of the opposition – ANPP, but was taken over by the PDP in 2003 with the emergence of Danjuma Goje as governor. The PDP has been ruling the state since then. However, the defection of Mr. Goje to the APC early in 2014 changed the political equation in the state. There are 1,120,,023 registered voters out of which 1,070,726 collected PVCs. Although a PDP state, Mr. Buhari is sure to go with the larger part of the votes while Mr. Jonathan will trail behind. The incumbent state governor who is running for a second term will help deliver votes to the president.
Taraba: Although a PDP state since 1999, the birth of the APC changed the face of politics in this state. Mr. Jonathan won the state in 2011 with Mr. Buhari trailing behind. The opposition has made serious inroad into the state and this is likely to affect the outcome of the election. A total of 1,270,889 out of 1,340,652 registered voters collected their PVCs. Of the figure, both frontline candidates may run neck to neck here. The parties will share the legislative seats but PDP may have the upper hand.
Adamawa: This is a state to watch today. In 2011, Mr. Jonathan garnered 508, 314 votes to Mr. Buhari’s 344,526. At that time, the state was a PDP stronghold but today, the APC is hotly chasing the ruling party. The defection of the impeached governor, Murtala Nyako to the APC in 2013 brought life to the opposition in the state until his deputy, Bala Ngilari of the PDP, took over the reins of power some months ago. To be sure, Adamawa is going to be a battle ground for the parties. What with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other power brokers in APC. However, the combination of Nuhu Ribadu, former governor Boni Haruna and few others will want to keep the state in PDP’s kitty. The PDP may also win more of the legislative seats. A total of 1,381,571 residents out of 1590,012 registered voters got their PVCs.
NORTH WEST
Katsina: Although ruled by the PDP, the people of Katsina will vote for their son, Mr. Buhari, who is from Daura town. The state has 2,827,943 registered voters but 2,620,096 collected PVCs.
Kano: The state with 4, 112, 039 PVC holders will go the way of Mr. Buhari just like it did in 2011. However, Mr. Jonathan may repeat his superlative performance. He had secured 440,666 votes to Mr. Buhari’s 1,624,543 votes. More of the National Assembly seats will go to the APC.
Kaduna: This is the political capital of the North and the home state of Vice President Namadi Sambo who is believed not to be enjoying strong support of the people. It has always been a PDP state and may not change. However, since the entry of former FCT Minister, Nasir El-Rufai into the governorship race on APC platform, the PDP has not remained the same. What however is certain is that Messrs Jonathan and Buhari will run neck to neck as it was in 2011 while the National Assembly election may go either way. Over 3.1 million people have PVCs here.
Kebbi: This is one of the three Caliphate states, the other being Sokoto and Zamfara. Although, it was in the hand of the opposition since 2007, it has been controlled by the PDP. Even so, Mr. Buhari of the CPC won the election here in 2011 beating Mr. Jonathan to the second place. The situation is not likely to change this time, what with the disunity in the state chapter of the PDP. The return of Adamu Aliero to the APC is believed to be a plus for the APC.
Sokoto: This sultanate state will be picked by the APC candidate while its National Assembly seats will be shared by the APC and the PDP. In 2011, it was won by Mr. Buhari who beat Mr. Jonathan with 540,769 to 309,057 votes. The defection of former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa appears not to be a challenge. Over two million people have PVCs.
Zamfara: This state with over 1.4 million PVC holders is an opposition stronghold since 1999 and has remained impregnable for the PDP. Mr. Buhari won here in 2011 and the voting pattern is not likely to change both in the presidential and legislative polls in favour of the PDP. Former Governor Ahmad Sani, the incumbent, Abdulaziz Yari, and other APC chieftains will work hard to keep the state in the kitty of the opposition.
Jigawa: Like the other north western states, though controlled by a strong PDP governor, Sule Lamido, Jigawa may be won by Mr. Buhari. Most of the 1.7 million PVC holders are likely to vote for the APC candidate.
PREMIUM TIMES has obtained a shocking confidential document detailing rigging plans to swing victory in favour of President Goodluck Jonathan.
A PDP insider said the master-plan was produced for the party and the presidency by a discreet strategy committee empanelled for the purpose. PM is unable to determine the membership of the committee at this time.
It is unclear whether the PDP is following these recommendations as the voting process goes underway across the country. When contacted, the National Publicity Secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party, Olisa Metuh, said he would not comment on a document he knew nothing about.
He said, “I can’t answer for a document I have not seen. We are in the middle of election and we are on the field. Every other thing at this time is diversionary.
“This is no time for accusation and counter accusation. All we want is for this election to be free, fair and credible. If anyone rigs this election, it would be obvious to Nigerians.”
Read full details of the plans below.
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STRATEGIC PLAN OF ACTION ON POLL SWINGING FOR PRESIDENT JONATHAN
Should it become practically impossible to stop the March 28 Presidential Elections, the PDP shall have no choice but to fall back on a strategic master plan that will ensure that votes are swinged in its favour in some carefully selected states in he six geopolitical zones.
We have done an extensive survey of the states taking into consideration nearly all the key factors and interplay of forces that could determine the outcome of Election in the zones.
NORTH WEST ZONE (NW)
APC is very strong in virtually all the states in the North West. However, our studies have also revealed that the PDP has opportunities to swing the votes in three of the six states that n1ake up the North West. The three states are, Sokoto, Kaduna, and· Kebbi. We suggest that heavy deployment of military and other security personnel be made in these three states with specific instruction to cooperate with the PDP.
Identify INEC officials and other party agents including those of the APC for huge financial inducements to swing votes for PDP.
NORTH EAST (NE)
With the exception of Gombe and partly Adamawa States where the PDP is expected to make some significant impact, the other four states are keen supporters of the APC presidential candidate. But we have also noticed that the PDP has an opportunity of swinging votes in Taraba, Gombe and Yobe states to boost the chances of Mr. President.
We are recommending similar strategy to be adopted in the selected states in the North West for the North East as well. In addition however, the PDP must be extremely cautious not to rake in excess votes that could easily lead to suspicions given the prevailing security situation in the area.
What is being suggested here is that vote swing in these zones should match relatively with the expected low voter turn out in the zone so as not to create credibility problem ab-initio for the officials and personnel who will be engaged for the exercise.
Key government officials should also be deployed in this direction for strategic reasons.
NORTH CENTRAL (NC)
The PDP should target Kwara, Kogi, Benue and Nassarawa states. Our studies have shown that the zone is traditionally a PDP zone but presently the APC has made very serious inroad in such a manner that the PDP’s strength has diminished significantly in the zone.
However, owing to the large followership that PDP still enjoys in Kogi, Benue, Nasarawa and the Northern part of Kwara State there is a window of opportunity to swing the votes. This can be achieved by deploying huge military personnel and enough financial inducements to INEC officials and party agents. It is expected that the zone will record very large voter turnout during the presidential Elections which lives the PDP with a good opportunity of swinging relatively large percentage of the votes for President Jonathan.
SOUTH WEST (SW)
This zone is the most difficult and delicate to deal with. Because of the high level of enlightenment and political education among the people1 vote swinging here may be a little tough for the PDP, but not impossible.
It is clear that the North West and South West share a lot in common in both population and support for the APC. However, the PDP will have to confront the challenge with iron cast resolve to swing the poll in at feast four states in the South West. These are Ekiti, Ondo, Lagos and Oyo. For these states, monetary or financial inducement may not produce expected results. Our studies have shown that both INEC officials and party· agents in most of the South
Western states do not easily succumb to monetary inducements. The Electorate in this part of the country are known for their hot headedness and are ever alert to moves being made by Election officials and ·the security agents -at Election times. They hardly give room for officials to manipulate the process.
To achieve the swing therefore will require a great deal of resolve on the part of that PDP to confront this big challenge. We are recon1mending that military presence should be established on a very high scale in the identified states on the Election Day. It may also be useful to profile son1e of the key leaders of the APC in these states a few days to the election for attempted’ acts of instigating violence and intimidation of PDP candidates and supporters.
The idea here is to enable the police and other security agencies invite these official for safe keeping in their custody until election are done with. We have realized that the close networking between APC officials and their field officers. Agents at election time have often prevented Election Officials and the security from tampering with results or doing anything to favour the opposition. We recommend that everything must be done to break or weaken this network so as to live some window of opportunity for the vote swinging strategy to be implemented. The Minister of Police Affairs should be actively on duty in these states to oversee the implementation of this plan.
We are also suggesting that the Nigeria Communication Commission, NCC should be involved at the level of interfering with the communication gadgets of all known APC bigwigs in the South West 24hrs before and after the Presidential Election so as to break or weaken the network between them and their field officers for the election period .
Restriction of top level APC officials is very necessary. Concerted effort rnust be made to work on the statistics of Oyo and Lagos states and local governments that attracts heavy votes.
SOUTH – SOUTH (SS)
The PDP should move into Rivers, Edo and Akvva Ibom with huge rnilitary deployment. It is not expected that Election in this key states will be without incidents. Giving the iron cast determination of Gov. Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers and Adams Oshiomole of Edo to deliver their states to the APC Presidential candidate.
In addition to military deployment, the headship of INEC officials could also be compromised with huge financial inducements. It may also be useful to enlist the services of son1e Ex-militants whose jobs basically will be to instill fear and intimidation into non PDP promoters and supporters in order to create or enhance the window of opportunity to swing the votes for PDP. Divide and rule tactics should be deployed in these states for desired result.
SOUTH EAST (SE)
This is the easiest of zones for the PDP. What we have found here is that the APC though has a good presence, does not really constitute major threat to
PDP. Vote swinging in this zone will be at the pleasure of PDP, that is if the party finds the need to do so. Apart from states like Imo and, Ebonyi the
APC is very unlikely to do well at the presidential poll in this zone. However, in order not to take things for granted, some light military presence and security personnel may be in order. Here, the PDP is not required to put much financial resource on election officials and party agents for the obvious reason that its chances of winning the presidential elections here are not under any treat whatsoever. The Propaganda that profiles APC standard bearer as an Islamic extremist has stuck on the opposition candidate like super glue and there is little they can do to change the perception of the average Igbo man about Gen. Buhari.
ADDENDUM
It is instructive to reiterate that the vote swing strategy as recommended for the zones is without prejudice to the sole objective of winning the election at all cost. The party should decide whether it is ready to win the polls using all the means and resources available to it and prepare for the legal battle to follow, or allow itself to be defeated and head for the courts as the underdog.
With Elections in Nigeria, experience has shown that is it better to fight from the position of strength. The idea of struggling in court after a defeat should not be contemplated at all. For it will be a share waste of time. The poll swinging strategy is aimed at harvesting between thirty to thirty four million votes for the PDP presidential candidate across twenty-eight states of the Federation including the FCT.
On the basis of the zones, officials who will implement this strategy must ensure that the presidential candidate collect at least between six and seven million votes each in the South-South, South East and North Central totaling 21 million. And for the South West the plan targets at least six million votes, North East 4 million, and Northern East 3 million votes.
South – South – 6 million votes
South- East – 7 million votes
North Central – 6 million votes
South West – 6 million votes
North West – 4 million votes
North East – 3 million votes
FCT – 1 million votes
Grand Total = 23 million votes
Contacts at INEC reliably informed our team that the target voter turnout overall nationwide is not expected to exceeded 50 million out of which it is projected that about 1 million votes may be voided.
EXECUTION PLAN
For effective implementation of this strategy we recommend that a tactical team of about one thousand men and women be constituted to be deployed to states. Owing to the very complex nature of this exercise, we suggest that each zone should present at least one Hundred people for this exercise.
They are to undergo induction course on the process of vote swinging at the discrete location. The PDP should as a matter of necessity set up a control room within a safe location at the FCT where the activities of all poll swinging officers can be effectively monitored. All officers involved in this exercise should be advised to use only text message when contacting the control room.
Tools needed for this exercise include the following.
Procurement of Ballot boxes
We have recommended the procurement of about fifty thousand ballot boxes ahead of the general elections to be distributed amongst the identified states in the North-West and the Norti)-East. We also recommend the procurement of ballot paper to be thumb-printed in favour of President Goodluck Jonathan.
Hostile States
Apart from states like Benue, Plateau, Kogi and Nasarawa, the remaining fifteen states in the North are to be treated as hostile to its presidential candidate for this elections. The six south-western states have also been classified as hostile states however the PDP may record a marginal win in
Ondo over the APC in the Presidential Elections. In the South-South Edo and Rivers have been singled out for special shock treatment reserved for similar hostile states in all the other zones in the North and South-West.
The South-East is generally regarded as the most friendly zone for the party with adequate measures to ensure that elections results are protected.
Ad-hoc Staff for INEC
We have recommended the recruitment of about five hundred staff for INEC who will be under strict instruction to work for the ruling party in this general election. Most of the Ad-Hoc staff are to be deployed in so called hostile states to enable the party, execute its plans of n1anipulating the electoral process there.
ELECTION OBSERVATION
We have recommended that some election · observers and NGOs both foreign and local are to be heavily induced to work for the PDP in this elections. It is specifically recommended that 25% of the monies collected at the fund raising dinner be set aside for this purpose.
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
A committee comprising members of the strategist, the DSS, Police, Civil Defence, INEC and the Army is to be set up within the next two weeks to see to the effective implementation of the recommended strategies.
It is important to note that funds should be released to all key officials and groups 48 hrs to the Election date to allow full concentration on the job.
The 2015 general elections will remain a standout amongst the most wildly challenged in Nigeria for quite a while to come. Follow Omo oodua 2015 Election live update as we bring you the latest Pre-election and post election news.
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, was embarrassed by a thug, Ise Aye, while Tinubu was doing his accreditation at polling unit 047 on Kaffi/Sunday Adigun Street, Alausa, Ikeja.
