Saturday, July 9, 2016

UK SITREP: The Brexit Farce and the Headless Chicken-Coup


by Jack J.
The British establishment have suffered two serious setbacks in rapid succession: The Tories have lost both of their leading figures, caused economic turmoil and empowered secessionist forces in Scotland, whilst the genuinely anti-establishment Leader of the opposition has been massively strengthened through a botched coup attempt.


During the 2015 General Election Cameron promised a referendum ‘on Europe’ to the British electorate, and won a slim majority through doing so. The defeat threw Labour into crisis and the feckless Miliband stepped down, triggering an election for a new leader of the Labour Party. Labour were in such disarray, that somehow a ‘Real Left’ MP (Jeremy Corbyn) was able to gain the backing of the 35 MPs needed to get on the ballot. (In both previous elections for leader John McDonnell [The Real Left candidate at the time] was denied such support, despite, or rather because, his politics resonated strongly with both the Unions and the Members.) With a Real Left candidate to vote for it was no real surprise that Corbyn went onto win, despite what the MSM were spewing at the time, but what was remarkable was both the margin of his victory (59%) and the surge in membership, both before and after (approx. 150,000). Thus the Labour Party membership gained a Leader who represented their views for the first time since Blair took over.

Despite receiving an absolute mauling from the MSM, Corbyn went on to win by-election after by-election with increased majorities, and then won the Local elections in May (which included various Mayoral contests, some by-elections and the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament). These victories denied the prospective ChickenCoupers the pretext they needed to launch their coup, so instead they were forced to wait until after Brexit Referendum.

Corbyn, a life-long euro-sceptic, was forced to campaign for Remain to maintain party unity, and as much distance from the likes of Johnson and Farage as possible. None-the-less, he refused to share a platform with Cameron and his fear-mongering, opting instead for a ‘sceptical Remain’: ‘pro-EU but not as it stands’. Effectively, Corbyn positioned himself, and Labour, so as not to side with either Johnson or Cameron. The 172 used this to declare his Remain campaign a failure and launched their ill-fated coup, with full backing of the MSM.

ChickenCoup Fallout:
  • Corbyn has come out of this ‘smelling of roses’: calm, cool, thick-skinned, measured, magnanimous and looking like a leader, even reported as ‘looking like a Prime Minister’ in the Independent.
  • The Real Left massively strengthened: new progressive Shadow Cabinet, an extra 200,000 (yes, 200,000!) Labour Party Members, and momentum has reported a 100% increase in membership.
  • 10,000 people turned out at Parliament Square with 24 hours’ notice to back Corbyn and 250,000 people signed a petition to do so.
  • The Unions and the CLPs are over-whelming defending Corbyn.
  • The 172 Right-wing Labour MPs are weakened, discredited and facing de-selection.
  • Tom Watson, the Deputy Leader, put himself in the firing-line through his participation in the ChickenCoup.
  • Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Leader, has lost face as a majority MSPs have come out for Corbyn contrary to her snipes.

Brexit Fallout:
  • Cameron and Johnson, and their associates, ran awful fear-based campaigns that disgusted the electorate.
  • Cameron lost and is stepping down soon.
  • Johnson won, accidentally, and then bottled running for Leader, realising the impossible predicament he would find himself in if he won.
  • Teresa May now looks likely to be next Prime Minister.
  • SNP and the prospects for Independence have been massively strengthened: Scotland now has a Foreign Policy, polls are showing around 60% in favour of INDE., the SNP have legitimate cause for INDE. Ref II, and have reported a membership surge.
  • Northern Ireland has been ‘destabilized’.
  • The UK Economy has suffered, as has Europe’s.
  • The future of the EU is in jeopardy.
The Tories now have a choice between equally horrific and uncharismatic leaders, face a deteriorating economy, a difficult divorce from the EU and Scottish succession; all of which is very obviously and publicly problems of their own creation. On top of that, all the nasty things they have done to everybody really are starting to hit home. There is no way they can relish the prospect of taking on Corbyn, and Sturgeon, under these circumstances, but they have a slim majority and a Prime Minister with no legitimacy. From Right to Left, Young to Old, Destitute to Reasonably well-off, everyone is very upset, and with each passing week the opposition, both North and South of Hadrian’s wall, grows stronger.

Some Links:
Anatomy of a Failed Coup in the UK Labour Party, Richard Seymour, Telesur,http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Anatomy-of-a-Failed-Coup-in-the-UK-Labour-Party-20160707-0009.html
Tory Activists stage ‘painfully embarrassing’ march on Parliament in support of Andrea Leadsom, Tom Marshall, The Evening Standard. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-activists-stage-painfully-embarrassing-march-on-parliament-in-support-of-andrea-leadsom-a3290256.html
Your Next Prime Minister, Mike Small, Bella Caledonia, http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2016/07/01/your-next-prime-minister/
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